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The most severe potential impacts of the climate emergency for the UK have been detailed by experts, including a blistering 4C increase in average temperatures to a two-metre increase in sea levels. Another scenario envisions a drop of 6C in temperature following the failure of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact farming and power requirements.

Possible Events, Not Forecasts

These consequences, a number of which are linked to critical climate thresholds, are considered as low probability but credible. The team explained that these projections addressed a shortfall in forecasting that had rendered the UK unprepared for worst-case results.

"The severe weather events we have outlined are not forecasts, but they are possible," stated the lead researcher who oversaw the study. "The nation has been planning without the tools to plan for extreme possibilities. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to get ready for future conditions they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Spectrum of Harsh Climate Possibilities

A further series of severe models details the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the end of the century. These suggest that thermometer readings could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above average, while rainfall could be three times typical amounts.

The chance of the extreme scenarios occurring could not be calculated due to unknown factors about what action will be enacted to tackle global heating and how the climate system will behave. This research was compared to security threat evaluations or stress tests for economic stability.

Major Scenario Elements

• Severe Heating: Global temperatures exceeding 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts fails or if vicious cycles including the Amazon rainforest dying release its enormous store of carbon. This would result in intense and enduring heat domes and droughts hitting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is weakening and becoming unstable due to ocean warming. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Agriculture would be severely challenged and water resources would be completely altered," explained the professor.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica melt abruptly, inundating low-lying areas. Unlike the other scenarios, this threat is already understood by infrastructure experts.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be driven up by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This paradoxical outcome occurs because aerosol particles from industrial activity block sunlight from reaching the ground.

Preparing for the Unthinkable

The worst-case scenarios could be applied to guide the development of long-term infrastructure, such as housing developments, power generation facilities and water management networks. Knowledge about these climate risks could also hasten the transition to slash fossil fuel emissions.

The study developed the extreme models using a blend of past data and records, computer simulations and established principles. The scenarios omit potential global problems such as the global food shortages and resource wars.

The research was requested as part of a national risk assessment framework. Previous assessments have stated that not enough attention was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

Official experts has said that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and examine the dangers for severe warming. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "inadequate" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson said: "The climate emergency is at the center of this government’s agenda, both preparing for impacts and transitioning to a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the consequences."